The Upgrade Mill

Ok, I admit it...

I too have an affinity for shiny objects.  Doesn't have to be computer related either.  In fact today I saw somebody driving a brand new Chevy Camaro SS with the temporary registration still attached to the license plate frame.  Now I really like and want to get a new Camaro in the near future and specifically an SS because I've had way too many wannabe V6's in my past.  So I should have been excited but instead all I could think of was...yuk!

See, this Camaro was White and I mean boring refrigerator white that  belongs on a Celica or something.  It had stripes but they were some off grey color that was almost invisible.  It didn't matter that drivetrain-wise it was outfitted exactly as I would order one; it just didn't -pop- for me.  It  should've been orange or red or blue or black, not white.  I mean who buys an SS Camaro (with a 5 to 10K price premium) just to blend in with the rest of rush hour!  I own a red mustang GT because I like V8's, pony car styling and got tired of being almost run over from people who didn't see me.

So what does this have to do with upgrades? Well, the fact that I like Camaros and have owned 4 of them doesn't negate the fact that part of my affection is driven by hype.  I mean how many Camaros, Mustangs and Challengers would sell if there were no marketing hype?   I firmly believe that at least 50% of PC hardware upgrades are driven by marketing hype directed firmly at our ingrained affinity for shiny objects.  We get lulled into believing that the more flashy the upgrade the better the product is even if the payoff is something less than the promise.  Case in point the most recent round of video cards.

The video card wars have two primary players; Nvidia and AMD/ATI.  For years these two goliaths of pixel pushing have been engaged in a war of hype eclipsed only by the Motherboard platforms they plug in to.  The crown passes between them but the hype never stops.  If one doesn't have the best offering the hype will more than make up for it.  It's a flurry of statistics, features and benchmarks designed to blur the fact that to 90% of consumers there will be no noticeable difference from one to the other.

I frequent sites like PC Perspective, HardOCP and Tom's Hardware as well as read publications like CPU and Maximum PC.  If you happen to have a preference for one vendor over another and you don't care about raw facts that contradict the latest competitors offering you will at some point be labeled a "Fanboy".  The fanboy phenomenon is really nothing more than an extension of the marketing hype designed to capture your affinity for .... wait for it.... Yes!  The affinity for shiny objects.

You can apply this formula to any product but I think the computer industry does it best.  I can think of few industries whose sales are driven almost completely by the deisre to own a shinier object than your neighbor with little if any basis in fact for that contention.  Yes, in the case of video cards there was a time when ATI had a marked deficit in performance compared to Nvidia's offerings ( and vice versa ) but that didn't stop the hype or prevent sales of current products in the channels due to a halo effect.  In the absence of a better product companies turn to promises of a superior product, " just around the corner" that may or may not materialize.  

You'll see engineering mockups hit all the popular review sites with great fanfare.  Even if the sample is little more than a piece of wood with a spiffy paint job and a few flashing LED's, a flurry of imaginary statistics will always be close behind.  They'll write pages of supposition based on little more than masterfully placed rumor undoubtedly created by marketing departments.  This is the  "vaporware" phenomenon.  It's great for sales forecasts but lousy for the consumer who often ends up with a less capable product or no product at all.

For me the most irritating example has been the recent crop of video cards released over the last 3 years.  The hype machine has been in full swing from ATI and Nvidia and product cycles are literally shorter than 6 months before a product is reduced to "legacy" status.  That's fine if there's real innovation going on but I've seen outrageous hype over a 5% performance premium versus a competitor or even the preceding product from the same vendor.  Never mind glossing over that for the supposed "upgrade" in performance you end up with a higher power requirement or more heat inside your pc case.

Allow me to make a comparison to another popular product, namely cars.

I love American cars, I'm stalwart against imports for a variety of reasons but I will be first to admit that there was a time when American cars by and large were no better than Yugo's in terms of quality and workmanship.  Still, in the 60's and 70's Americans shunned imports.  It took an oil crisis ( real or manufactured ) to turn the American public to vehicles from other shores that at least "seemed" to be of better quality and cost less to operate.  

The fact is that many of them weren't and I can't think of too many 73 Datsun's or Toyota's still running around but it began a new halo effect.  Even in the face of evidence to the contrary there are many people who will claim supremacy of the imported car over the domestic product.  This is nothing more than a very well tuned marketing construct designed to ensure a loyal consumer. 

In the case of cars, the 70's not only brought the invasion of the import but mastering of the concept of churn.  Yes, there was always strong marketing to get the newest model but most people up to that point would buy a car and expect to have it at least 5 years.   It wasn't uncommon to  have "your father's Oldsmobile" passed down to you as your first car after many years of service to ol' dad.  With the advent of imports we shortened that cycle.  Engineered obsolescence and relentless marketing was designed to make the consumer feel bad about holding on to that inferior older model even if it was perfectly serviceable.  Think about how many cars of the first half of the 20th century survived to this day in good enough shape to be restored and returned to service.  Not so with a 70's or 80's car that was rusting to the ground  in 3 years of Michigan winter.

This is the exact same formula applied to pc upgrades.  Even if your current hardware is performing perfectly the never-ending hype machine will work on you until you rationalize a purchase by fitting your perceived need into the hype.  I've done it and regretted it.  That's why benchmarks are nice because they can at least give you something to go by so long as you're the one doing the comparisons.  I have literally built a brand new gaming rig from the ground up because I believed the newer platform was better.  In a limited way it was, by about 5%.  It cost me much more than 5% to build that new rig, however, and I felt a bit cheated.  I learned my lesson the hard way.

I'm not saying that you won't see remarkable gains from moving from a Pentium 4 to a Core I7, you will and I have.  The difference is that I don't upgrade because of glossy magazine ads and cool flash laden websites.  I like to upgrade when there are hard facts to justify the cost and trouble.  It is only when I start to hit the performance wall that I start looking for upgrades.  For example; I've completely ignored the latest crop of Nvidia cards starting with the 480 series and continuing the current 580 series because for the purported gains the cost of entry makes no sense.  If I'm playing games at less than 1900x1200 resolutions then what benefit do I get from the extra power and heat tax these cards exact?  My current gaming rig is a Core I7 940 with 2 Nvidia GTS 285's and I've yet to tax them with any game I currently run on them.  Oh! but to listen to the hype, I'm supposed to run out and get a new P/H 67 Sandy Bridge based motherboard and CPU ( and we know how well that's working out for early adopters ) Get a pair of NVIDIA 580's or ATI 6970's and all will be right with the world. 

I DON'T THINK SO.  For one thing the latest and greatest Intel offerings are called "mainstream" products which means that by the time the "enthusiast" products come out in 6 months your shiny new motherboard ( which you won't get back from RMA till April ) will be old and somehow not as good as the "new" stuff  you'll pay a premium for.  Aside from bypassing the early adopter growing pains you'll likely be in the 90% of consumers who will see virtually no benefit in your gaming experience from the investment should you give in to the hype.

Ahh but churn is a fact of life in the marketplace but that doesn't mean you have to be a slave to it!